Top 10 reasons why Kobe (or any other established superstar) will never leave the NBA for an overseas contract

Maybe it’s because there haven’t been any big trades or signings worth talking about and it is the offseason, but I’ve been hearing quite a bit about players moving overseas. Who will be the first big superstar to bolt, etc … So I figured I’d help everyone out and post 10 reasons why it won’t happen. A quick note before I begin: pay attention to the use of the word “established” in the title. That plays a crucial role in some of my arguments.So here we go. These aren’t necessarily ranked, but obviously the early ones came to mind first …1. Family.Relocation is hard. Tyson Chandler blogged last February about how overlooked the social cost of changing teams is. Families must be relocated, kids pulled out of schools and enrolled elsewhere … it’s hard on everyone involved. This also ties in with reason #4.2. Legacy.This is the big one. The reason why Kobe won’t leave is he’s measuring himself against guys with NBA titles. That’s still the yardstick you have to go up against, and it clearly weighs heavily on both Kobe and Shaq’s minds. All you have to do is listen to them be interviewed for more than 5 minutes, it always comes up. You could accuse me of being Laker-centric, but it’s still the biggest rivalry-based NBA storyline a good 5 years after they split up. There’s a reason they always play on Christmas … But disregarding titles for a second, a player’s skill level is harder to discern when he plays against inferior competition. Is Josh Childress playing better than he was in ‘07-’08? How could you tell? A player’s career arc can be knocked off course with an extended stay in an inferior league, and this plays into pride, which is also a factor in reason #8.3. Salary Structure.Now some of this is based on conjecture. But if you look at the salary structure in the NBA, it is decidedly in favor of older players. Such a blatant seniority system is a reason why the Hawks’ wouldn’t spring for Childress’s dough: they were paying veterans (Bibby: $15 mil, Johnson: $14 mil) too much to break the bank on a younger player. You could argue it was Childress or Josh Smith and Smith deserved it, but Smith is earning his salary. Is Bibby worth $15 mil? Of course not. But he’s stuck it out through years where he was being underpaid, and now he’s getting what’s coming to him.The truth is, in the NBA older players past their primes still make bank. So a younger player frustrated at his pay level may do himself a disservice by bolting overseas. Why? Because the amount of money a team has to pay you increases based on how many years you’ve played, not how old you are. If you skip three years and come back to the NBA at 30, you’re in the pay range for someone who was only 27. Taking more money early in your career may come back to haunt you, assuming you want back in to the NBA. Not only has nobody seen you play against elite competition for 3 years, but you set back your main advantage in negotiations (seniority) back three years.4. Culture shock.What’s it like living in Greece, Josh? You told us on PTI that you hadn’t even tried Greek food and don’t speak the language. Turns out food and communication, pretty essential in life. What are you doing with regards to your friends? Are you funding the entourage in Greece? Did your old homies come with you? Did they even want to? And how about attempting to blend in? If you think you’re easy to spot at 6′8″ in Atlanta, imagine how hard it is when you’re not only the tallest guy in the country, but the only black guy as well. You can go ahead and kiss any hopes of privacy goodbye. And to add to that, you’re now a curiosity in a foreign country, rather than just another oversized athlete in America. People will never leave you alone.5. Childhood Dreams.Tony Kornheiser asked Josh this question, and it was to the heart of the matter to be sure: “Josh, you said you came to Greece to help Olympiakos win a championship. All your life you dreamed of winning an NBA championship. How badly do you want to win the European Championship?” Josh’s eyes gave him away, he was slightly crestfallen: he hadn’t thought if it like that. Growing up, American players want to win the NBA championship, and not much else. For a European player, it’s not necessarily different, but a lot easier to reconcile going home. This ties in with reasons #8 and #10.6. Sponsors.Some have explained to me how Kobe would be worth more if he played abroad, he’d be opening markets, look at China, etc. I’m not buying it for a second. Are you telling me that they can sell more shoes by sending him abroad? Foreign markets have opened up to NBA exports without having to send a player overseas, so I don’t think that argument holds much water. Increasingly, you’re seeing shoe companies trot out their entire lineup, every NBA star they sponsor. They get them in a gym, film some scrimmages, have them all put their hands in the middle while KG recites a scripted pump-up speech, and then mix it with some inspirational music. Don’t tell me it started with this year’s Redeem Team, they’ve been doing it for the last couple of years.The point is Adidas and Nike both keep 30+ players on their roster, and if one player moved to Greece, do you think they’d include him in those commercials? Doubtful, they’d probably just replace him with an up-and-comer. Publicity is how often you’re in the news. Why are you paying to sponsor a guy who doesn’t get pub because he plays in a league no one follows? Besides the initial press about how big a move it is, and a couple of follow-up stories, Josh Childress will be fully removed from the public’s mind by mid-November. If he wins the championship, he’ll get a side note on a sports talk show, but that’s about it. No real reason to be stoked on your player going overseas if you’re Nike or Adidas.7. Salary increase mitigated by decrease in sponsor earnings.I’m not saying they would drop a guy off the roster if he bolted overseas. But there are tons of clauses in these contracts, enough so that players regularly get dropped for getting bad P.R. in the spirit of “conduct detrimental to Adidas.” They usually resign him quietly, but the point is that these contracts aren’t guaranteed. We still don’t know how much Kobe left on the table when he got arrested in Colorado. Sure, you get millions tax free, but most elite athletes make equal or more money off of sponsorships than contracts. That sponsorship money is wholly dependent on you being a star in the NBA, not just a star.8. Competitive Nature.This might be the most compelling non-monetary reason. How would you feel if you bolted for Europe, and then come back to chill at one of Agent Zero’s birthday bashes? You would be ribbed endlessly by your peers, especially the other elite stars. “You’re dominating? My grandma could dominate in Greece. It’s just because you’re in Europe that you look good.” And that’s only from the other athletes you have a competitive relationship with. How about fans, the media, the city you left to go to Europe? They would be ruthless. Your cred would never recover unless you came back and did some spectacular stuff. But if you had spectacular stuff in you, why did you waste those years overseas?9. Florida.What about the pure monetary aspect? After taxes, NBA players receive roughly half (or less) of their stated salaries. The figures you’ve seen, $80 mil over three years? In addition to the perks, that would be virtually all yours to take home. But why not just move to Florida? If you don’t want to pay taxes, there are places in the U.S. you can get around it, and those places are Alaska and Florida. Florida ain’t so bad: beaches, sunshine, whores … there’s a reason why Shaq has played for both teams in the state, and wants a job in the Orlando front office when he retires …10. Sloth.Just to round it out … moving to Europe is a HUGE decision. Players who do it will likely do so impulsively, a la Josh Childress. And this is where the “established” phrasing really kicks in. Players who haven’t hit that big paycheck, are impatient and not tied down with families, these are the players that will mob to Europe when the price is right. But those players aren’t stars yet. Anyone who’s gotten one of those fat contracts knows that they’re set far after their skills decline, they can just pull a Stephon Marbury and insist on being paid while refusing to actually contribute to the team’s success. An established NBA star has it made, they’re in the prime of their earning potential … why would you mess that up by moving to Europe?I’d love to hear what anyone else thinks about this. Not every reason is airtight, but in concert I think they present a pretty daunting argument …

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